The Houston Astros are going to have some tough decisions to make this offseason when it comes to where to spend and which positions to try to upgrade.

While obviously the Alex Bregman decision hangs over everything and will determine how much wiggle room Houston has in the budget, there are some other key players set to hit free agency. One of them was someone the Astros acquired at the trade deadline who played the best baseball of his career down the stretch in starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi.

In ten starts with the team after Houston acquired him from Toronto, Kikuchi put up a 2.70 ERA along with 76 strikeouts over 60 innings pitched with a WHIP below 1.0 en route to becoming arguably the Astros’ most important starting pitcher. Despite his sensational run which was more impressive than anything has shown before, Houston fans should not expect to see Kikuchi in an Astros uniform in 2025. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com put things pretty bluntly in his mailbag discussion about the lefty.

“No,” McTaggart said when asked if the Astros will make Kikuchi an offer. “The Astros don’t have a ton of payroll flexibility for 2025, so signing Kikuchi when they already have some quality starting pitching depth isn’t likely.”

While it may be somewhat tempting for team brass to do everything they can to keep Kikuchi in Houston, passing on a big offer and letting someone else give it to him is probably in their best interest. It can’t be ignored that statistically, Kikuchi’s run was a bit of an anomaly based on what he has been throughout his six-year career with the Blue Jays and Mariners.

He had a career season in 2023 with a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts, but had a 4.75 in 2024 before he was traded. In his career, Kikuchi has been no better than average with a career 4.57 ERA and a WHIP of 1.344. It’s understandable why the team would be interested in bringing him back, but unless he’s willing to take a huge discount, it’s likely better to dismiss Kikuchi’s strong finish as simply getting hot rather than an accurate representation of the quality of pitcher he actually is.

It looks like Houston is wisely going to take a pass here.