Following the stunning signing of Alex Bregman by the Red Sox, the Cardinals and Yankees are expected to ramp up talks regarding 3B Nolan Arenado.

Jack Curry, Andy Martino, and Jeff Passan have downplayed the odds of the Yankees acquiring the former All-Star, but MLB’s John Denton reports otherwise. If the Yankees and Cardinals do begin conversations regarding Arenado after the signing of Alex Bregman, it would be a departure of pace given how frugal the team has acted since exceeding the 4th threshold.

Is Nolan Arenado On a Crash Course To Joining the Yankees?

Probably not. The Yankees are currently over the fourth threshold of the Luxury Tax, known as the ‘Steve Cohen Tax’ as it was introduced briefly after Cohen himself took over the Mets. It requires the team to pay a 110% tax surcharge on any payments made above the tax, and that’s added on top of the player’s Luxury Tax salary.

For example, paying Nolan Arenado $15 million in 2025 would result in the Yankees being taxed to the point that the addition would push Hal Steinbrenner to pay north of $30 million for his services this year. Unless a new leaf has been turned inside the front office, that requires either the Cardinals eating a ton of money or the Yankees moving a bad contract on their team.

Marcus Stroman is reportedly not a player whom St. Louis would have an interest in, and the Cardinals are moving Arenado in an effort to slash payroll.

Still, the signing of Alex Bregman certainly leaves the Cardinals in a weird situation, and they could end up making a desperate attempt to dump their aging third baseman. Perhaps the Yankees are able to ask for a prospect or a player to improve their roster elsewhere, but that may require Brian Cashman to attach prospects in return.

It also seems like the Yankees would be more concerned with making this a financial win instead of an overall win, utilizing their financial muscle to take on additional players that benefit their roster. Approaching the deal as a way to acquire multiple impact players and soften the blow for the second one would be wise, as Arenado could soften the cost of acquiring another dynamic bullpen arm like Ryan Helsley.

Jack Curry has said numerous times that the team is not expected to begin a pursuit of Nolan Arenado, which is why any momentum toward a deal would make me skeptical. The Yankees do not strike me as the kind of team to pay a 110% tax surcharge for three years of Nolan Arenado, and the Cardinals do not strike me as the kind of team to attach a player of value just to dump some money.