The Indiana Fever enter their first-round playoff series against the Las Vegas Aces as underdogs on paper, but they carry the confidence of a regular-season series win and a historically potent offense.
The Aces (31-13) are the No. 3 seed, the defending champions, and a team that has won three of the last four WNBA titles . The Fever (28-16) are the No. 6 seed, a young squad that just set the WNBA record for highest-scoring offense in a single season (96.0 points per game) . The series begins Sunday, Sept. 27, in Las Vegas.
The Case for the Heist
Indiana won the season series 2-1, and the two victories were blowouts. On July 5, the Fever won 84-68. A week later, they demolished the Aces 109-75 . The lone Las Vegas win required overtime and a pair of buzzer-beating 3-pointers from Chelsea Gray after Caitlin Clark missed two free throws with seven seconds left in regulation .
Clark was either absent or limited in two of those three meetings, meaning the Fever’s best version of themselves may not have even been fully on display .
Clark is playing the best basketball of her career. She averaged a career-high 22.3 points and 8.3 assists per game this season, shooting 44.5% from the field . Over her final five games, she averaged 30.2 points and 10.0 assists . Since mid-July, a 19-game stretch, she’s averaged 26 points on 48.2% shooting .
Her running mate, Kelsey Mitchell, just completed one of the greatest scoring seasons in WNBA history. Mitchell averaged 24.7 points per game, set the league record for most points in a season (1,086) and most 3-pointers in a season (135), and scored in double figures in all 44 games . The Clark-Mitchell duo combined for 47.0 points per game, the highest by any pair of teammates in league history .
The Case for the Champs
The Aces have A’ja Wilson, the four-time MVP who is playing like it. In the regular-season finale, Wilson scored 19 points in the first quarter alone en route to 34 points and 10 rebounds . She is the sport’s most dominant two-way force.
Las Vegas also has the playoff pedigree. Under head coach Becky Hammon, the Aces are 26-9 in the postseason, a 74% winning percentage . They swept the Fever in the 2025 semifinals and went on to win the championship . Paige Bueckers recently told Prime Video that the Aces turn into a “different animal come playoffs” .
The Gray factor cannot be ignored. In the August meeting, Gray hit two buzzer-beating 3-pointers—one to force overtime, one to win it—after Clark’s late-game mistakes . Gray has four WNBA championships, the most among active players .
Las Vegas also has a health advantage that Indiana may not. The Aces enter the postseason relatively intact, while the Fever are coming off a brutal regular-season finale in which backup guard Ty Harris suffered an ankle injury and Clark scored a season-low two points on 1-of-12 shooting .
The X-Factor: Playoff Pressure
Clark has been candid about the weight of late-game moments. After the August loss to Las Vegas, she took full blame for the defeat, saying, “Those are free throws I usually make… I kind of cost my team there for sure. So that’s on me” . That accountability is admirable, but it also reveals a player still learning how to close against the league’s best.
The Aces know how to close. They have done it for four straight years.
For Indiana to pull off the heist, Clark must be the best player in the series, Mitchell must continue her historic scoring run, and the Fever must avoid the late-game miscues that have plagued them against Las Vegas. The talent gap is narrower than the seedings suggest. The experience gap is not.
The ultimate Vegas heist would require the Fever to win at least one game in a building where the Aces are built for June and July—and engineered for September and October.
Prediction: Aces in three. Las Vegas’ championship DNA and Wilson’s dominance prove too much for a Fever team still learning how to win when the stakes are highest.
