Supercomputer predicts the chances of Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal’s  of winning the Premier League title race

Leicester City was victorious the last time three teams were split by just two points at the Premier League summit this late in the season.

With the Foxes at the top of England’s second division, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal will now compete in an exciting battle for the Premier League title this year.

Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp’s generational talent has prepared the path for some of the most high-spec, machine-like title chases in recent years. However, after having the best start to a calendar year in the club’s history, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who were toughened by the spring collapse of the previous season, are without a doubt the third horse in a rare three-way contest.

With the final third of the campaign upon us, just one win separates the division’s leading triumvirate. Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the remainder of an enthralling campaign to play out.

2023/24 Premier League table

Position

Team

Played

GD

Points

1.

Liverpool

26

+38

60

2.

Man City

26

+33

59

3.

Arsenal

26

+39

58

As Klopp reflected on Liverpool’s position at the Premier League summit, he admitted: “Nobody expected us there.” Even the German coach himself conceded: “I thought it was possible, but didn’t really think about it.”

Opta put a number on the overwhelming doubt looming over any Liverpool title charge after finishing fifth – 22 points behind champions Manchester City – last term: 3.5%. Liverpool’s chances of winning the title have increased tenfold over the subsequent six months.

Despite overhauling the entire midfield, Klopp has somehow crafted a cohesive unit without the yawning chasms that existed last season. Liverpool are not flawless – none of the title challengers are, which is perhaps what makes this year’s race more engaging than the previous processions of near perfection – and have conceded the first goal in 11 different matches this term, almost twice as often as Arsenal for comparison.

However, the remarkable squad depth at Klopp’s disposal has covered an acute injury crisis and Liverpool arguably have the kindest run-in of any contender. But they are not the favourites.

Value

At the start of the season

After 26 matches

Probability of winning the title

3.5%

37.1%

Predicted final league position

3rd

2nd

All data via Opta. Correct as of 25 February 2024.

“When we lose a game we are out of the title race,” Pep Guardiola sniffed at the end of 2023. “When we win a game we are there.”

Heading into the new season, it would have taken more than one loss to consider the reigning treble winners out of any title race. City were judged to have a 90.2% chance of collecting a fourth consecutive Premier League trophy by Opta in August, comfortably the heaviest favourites in any of Europe’s top five leagues.

Kevin De Bruyne’s prolonged absence as well as the sale of Ilkay Gundogan contributed to an uncharacteristic lack of control in City’s play this season. More often than not, they have the superior quality to prevail but Aston Villa delivered an emphatic 1-0 victory over City in December with a crushingly dominant performance that belied the scoreline.

City had just two shots as Erling Haaland limped off injured. The knives were out. But Klopp was quick to offer a note of caution: writing off Guardiola’s side “would be the biggest joke in the history of football”.

The Catalan duly proved his adversary correct, leading City on a sequence of nine wins from their subsequent 11 league games. City still lift the league trophy in more than half of Opta’s 10,000 simulations of the campaign’s remainder, but their title credentials will look a lot clearer after a season-defining sequence of matches in March which include heavyweight showdowns with Liverpool and Arsenal.

Value

At the start of the season

After 26 matches

Probability of winning the title

90.2%

51.3%

Predicted final league position

1st

1st

Arsenal’s title aspirations were lifeless as recently as New Year’s Eve. Arteta admitted as much after a bleak loss to Fulham. “If we play like today we will be nowhere near,” he sighed.

Yet, an unprecedented run of six consecutive league wins to start 2024 has reignited ambitions of avenging last year’s fumble. The Gunners have racked up an aggregate scoreline of 26-3 since a restorative warm-winter break in Dubai. On top of the rediscovered fluency, Arsenal have maintained the supreme solidity out of possession that kept them within striking distance of City and Liverpool through the start of the season.

Arteta’s side boast the best defence in the division and beyond – no club in Europe’s top five leagues concede fewer shots on target than Arsenal. Despite an imperious rearguard, the Gunners only have an 11.5% of ending a two-decade wait for the Premier League title according to Opta. Arteta’s reliance upon a clear first-choice XI may be his side’s undoing if injuries begin to bite in the closing months.

As the Spanish manager admitted after an uneventful January transfer window: “We have one of the thinnest squads in the league, that’s for sure.”

Arsenal are the only survivors from the last three-horse Premier League race which Leicester shockingly won. Only time will tell if Arsenal can pull off the surprise this season.

Value

At the start of the season

After 26 matches

Probability of winning the title

4.1%

11.5%

Predicted final league position

2nd

3rd