Josh Pate has released his 2026 predictions for Alabama, and we think he’s selling the Crimson Tide short.
📉 Pate’s Take: A Step Back
Pate predicts Alabama will be worse than their 10-2 regular season from 2025, pegging them closer to a 9-3 finish . He points to massive roster turnover: 10 players drafted in 2026, including first-rounders QB Ty Simpson and OT Kadyn Proctor . The Tide also lost 23 players to the portal while bringing in 19 (ranked 39th nationally), leaving question marks at QB and O-line .
His CFP bracket? Alabama as the No. 8 seed, beating USC then losing to No. 1 Notre Dame—a repeat of last year’s blowout to Indiana .
🏈 Why That Feels Low
While there are valid concerns, “9-3” feels premature for a team with this talent:
· Stability Under DeBoer: Year 3 under Kalen DeBoer. This program already made the playoff in Year 2—a clear upward trend that shouldn’t be dismissed .
· Elite Recruiting: There’s still a lot of blue-chip talent on this roster, especially in a highly-touted secondary .
· Path to 10+ Wins: The schedule offers chances to build momentum before a brutal October stretch (Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU) . USA TODAY and Joel Klatt both think 10-2 is more likely .
💬 The Bottom Line
The concern about the offensive line and QB is real—Pate isn’t alone . But an 8- or 9-win projection feels like the floor for this program, not the ceiling. We like the over on the 8.5 win total .
What do you think—will Alabama prove Pate wrong?
