Would Jadon Sancho Be An Upgrade On Raheem Sterling? We Take A Look At The Numbers
David Tully David Tully 5 hours ago Categories: Chelsea News, Galleries, Transfer News Tags: Chelsea, Jadon Sancho, Manchester United, Raheem Sterling
Multiple sources have confirmed that Chelsea are interested in a potential swap deal with Manchester United, involving Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling.
Many fans are sceptical about whether Sancho would be much of an improvement on Sterling so, in this post, we will look at the stats to find an answer.
We will be using Opta data (from FBREF) for our analysis, based on their league performances from the beginning of the 2021/22 season (when Sancho first moved to United).
Press the next page as we decide whether Sancho would be an upgrade on Sterling.
Goals and Assists
If you compare the output of the two players, Sterling comfortably comes out on top.
Combining goals and assists, the Chelsea forward has averaged 0.59 per 90 minutes over the last three years. Sancho’s figure is 0.37 per 90, which is substantially lower.
When looking at the expected goal (xG) and expected assist (xA) stats, those numbers are backed up. Sterling’s combined xG and xA per 90 is 0.58 while Sancho’s is 0.40.
Based on the numbers, it’s clear that Sterling has more of an impact on the scoreline.
Shots per 90 and Shot Conversion
Delving further into the stats, we can see why Sterling is more of a goal threat than his Manchester United counterpart.
Over the last three and a bit seasons, the 29-year-old has simply been better at taking shots.
Sterling averages 2.21 shots per 90, which is over double what Sancho produces (1.09 per 90). The United star’s shot count is pretty woeful for a forward.
Things are a bit more even when we look at shot conversion. Sancho has a 20% conversion rate to Sterling’s 17%; both of these figures are actually very good, suggesting they can be clinical in front of goal. However, Sterling just gets into scoring positions more often.
Key Passes and Progressive Carries
This is where the tide turns in Sancho’s favour. The United forward is more creative than Sterling.
The key pass is the pass before a shot, and Sancho has averaged 2.15 per 90 since joining United in 2021. Sterling’s number is 1.59 per 90 in comparison.
When you look at progressive carries, when a player takes a ball 10 yards further upfield inside the opponent’s half, Sancho comes out on top again.
The 24-year-old averages 5.27 per 90 to Sterling’s 4.64, which indicates his willingness to keep the ball and take it into threatening positions.
Successful Take-ons
A successful take-on is recorded every time a player beats an opponent when dribbling. Considering what we know about progressive carries, it is not a surprise that Sancho wins this category too.
Over the past three years, the United player has averaged 2.32 successful take-ons per 90. Sterling is only marginally behind on this metric, though, executing a successful take-on 2.06 times per 90.
In conclusion, you can clearly see where the two players differ. Sancho is more of a traditional winger. He is a creator rather than a finisher.
He is far less effective in scoring or creating goals than Sterling, so it is questionable whether he would be much of an upgrade on what Chelsea already have.
