Liverpool module: Analysis on Darwin Nunez, Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and others

Liverpool lost 2-1 at Brighton in the FA Cup; Darwin Nunez potential analysed, Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold drop out; injury concerns, average age, and recent transfer activity; statistics behind the decline in fitness

Liverpool suffered a 2-1 defeat at Brighton in the FA Cup on Sunday and are now 21 points behind leaders Arsenal, so what went wrong?

Jurgen Klopp’s side have already lost six times in the Premier League, having played just 19 games, which is more than they have lost in the 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2021/22 seasons.

The Reds’ defense appears to be the main cause of their lackluster state, having already conceded 25 goals, which is more than they conceded for the entirety of the 2018-19 season and just one fewer than last season.

Losing points has clearly been a problem, we have lost 28 points this season, six points more than last season.

What do the statistics say? The image below shows that Liverpool are just a bit on the boil, with marginal drops in goals scored and goals expected.

The Reds have managed just 0.84 ‘big chances’ per game this season, the lowest ratio since 2015/16.

Liverpool are widely accused of lowering their usual levels of intensity when applying pressure from the front and statistics show that the average number of steals in the final third has almost halved this season, to levels comparable to the past five years.

They also appear to fall back, recording their lowest average pass count in the final third under the German, while regaining possession more than ever in their defensive third.

The image below shows how far on the pitch Liverpool typically start to pass in the open and shows how the team have pulled back over three meters this season and are now behind Manchester City, Arsenal, Leeds, Newcastle, Chelsea and Brighton. Although it is difficult to isolate a problem as a root cause, defensive measures are more visible when success is generally based on a holistic balance.

Liverpool are scoring 1.32 goals per game this season, which is their worst rate since Klopp’s first term. The problem is even more apparent when it comes to expected conceded goals, which stand at 1.46 per game – the highest ever under Klopp.

Worse still, Klopp’s side have 4.68 shots per game and kept just one in four clean sheets – also the worst odds since the German took charge.

And Liverpool’s opponents are getting more and more specific

The maps below detail every shot Liverpool have faced over the past two seasons and show how their opponents are taking a much higher proportion of accurate shots this season – with shots on target marked in blue matching almost all of last season . The retreat of Alexander-Arnold

Critics often focus on Trent Alexander-Arnold’s defensive skills, but his offensive talents are beyond question. However, the full-back hasn’t reached his full potential this season with just one assist so far.

Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold says he is not interested in the criticism he faces and believes his side’s form and results will change over time

The 23-year-old has recorded double-digit assists in three of the past four seasons, and his current decline represents a fivefold decline from last half.

However, his predicted assist ratio is nearly quadrupling his actual return, drawing further attention to potential problems with teammates ending up good chances.

Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold says he is not interested in the criticism he faces and believes his side’s form and results will change over time

The 23-year-old has recorded double-digit assists in three of the past four seasons, and his current decline represents a fivefold decline from last half. However, his expected support rate nearly quadruples his actual output, again indicating potential issues when his teammates take advantage of good opportunities.

Nunez finds his marks

Liverpool paid £85m to sign Darwin Nunez from Benfica in the summer and the Uruguay striker blew hot and cold on his Anfield debut.

He fired 56 shots in the Premier League, on target with less than half of those tries and scoring just five goals.

Nunez should have scored more than seven goals according to the expected goals – with a deficit of -2.43, which is considered the sixth worst ratio in the division. Notably, Arsenal’s vaunted striker Gabriel Jesus has a lower differential. While many praise the wider strokes Jesus offers the Gunners, Nunez is also showing clear signs that he can deliver the goods – provided his accuracy improves.

The table below shows the average number of shots, expected goal difference excluding penalties and total number of fast breaks per 90 minutes for each player who has played 360 minutes or more in the Premier League this season, showing how the 23- He’s in a league of his own with hard-hitting Manchester City striker Erling Haaland – but he also uses afterburners far more often than the Norwegian.

While many praise the wider strokes Jesus offers the Gunners, Nunez is also showing clear signs that he can deliver the goods – provided his accuracy improves.

The table below shows the average number of shots, expected goal difference excluding penalties and total number of fast breaks per 90 minutes for each player who has played 360 minutes or more in the Premier League this season, showing how the 23- He’s in a league of his own with hard-hitting Manchester City striker Erling Haaland – but he also uses afterburners far more often than the Norwegian.

One reason is a 25 per cent drop in touches in opponents’ penalty area – from 11 per game to 8.3 – in what is thought to be its lowest ever Premier League rate.