Liverpool vs Chelsea Predictions: The Reds need prayers judging by statistics

Having correctly predicted that both teams would score over 2.5 goals in last week’s Manchester derby, Simon Barlow now assesses this weekend’s Liverpool-Chelsea match.

Liverpool and Chelsea languish in ninth and tenth respectively, 10 points off their Champions League places ahead of Saturday afternoon’s Premier League clash at Anfield.

– Liverpool have lost their last two league outings, conceding three goals in each defeat
– Chelsea are unbeaten in their last two trips to Anfield

After back-to-back league defeats at Brentford and Brighton, Jurgen Klopp said he waited “ages” for the Reds, who still have a game in hand against the Blues, to win with a positive performance.

That finally came after he called up a number of younger players for Liverpool’s 1-0 win against Wolves in the FA Cup third round replay on Tuesday.
Chelsea ended a four-game winless run by taking points away at Crystal Palace in an afternoon that paraded new signing Mykhailo Mudryk last weekend. Playing in a much younger line-up than in Chelsea’s previous matches, Graham Potter can once again lead the youngsters in what could prove to be a crucial game for both clubs’ seasons.

Stefan Bajcetic and Harvey Elliott are pushing for starting roles after impressing in Liverpool’s win over Molineux.

Klopp could bring some of his underperforming midfielders out of the Brighton defeat, with Fabinho at greater risk of being relegated to the bench.

Naby Keita and Joe Gomez were also able to keep their places after putting in strong performances in mid-week, while the manager’s attacking options should be boosted by the return from injury of Darwin Nunez.

Kostas Tsimikas (back) has been tagged against Wolves and will need to be judged, but Andy Robertson is likely to return at left-back. For Chelsea, Mudryk might lack the sharpness in the game to make his debut early on as the winger hasn’t played competitively since November.

Potter should also resist the temptation to send full-backs Ben Chilwell and Reece James, who have been out of action for some time, straight into the fray.

James has been missing for over a month with knee issues and Chilwell has been out since early November with a hamstring injury.

The Blues boss is likely to make some changes to his latest line-up for the Anfield clash, with Marc Cucurella and Mateo Kovacic earning recalls for Trevoh Chalobah and Carney Chukwuemeka.

Statistics

Liverpool’s 3-0 defeat at Brighton was their first loss in their last 33 Premier League games which started at 3pm on a Saturday – a run dating back to a 2-0 defeat at Hull City in February 2017. The Reds have lost their first two games of a calendar year in the Premier League for the first time since 1993.

By beating Palace, Chelsea avoided the embarrassment of losing four consecutive games in all competitions for the first time in 30 years.

The average age of Potter’s starting squad against the Eagles was 25.6 years, more than three years younger than the squads he fielded against Nottingham Forest and Manchester City earlier this month.

Mudryk scored three goals in the Champions League group stage for Shakhtar Donetsk, more than any other Chelsea player in the competition.
The Ukrainian international has scored seven goals in his last eight league appearances for Shakhtar and has averaged goals or assists every 65 minutes in the Ukrainian league this season.

Prediction

Potter has left Anfield with good results in each of his last two visits to Brighton and could turn it into a hat-trick with an improving Chelsea side.

The Blues were the better team at Fulham before Joao Felix’s red card sidelined them and they made a good impression against Crystal Palace last Sunday.

It will be interesting to see Potter integrate new signing Mudryk into an attack that has conceded just three goals in their last five away games, but Chelsea have only had one defensive disaster this season – in Brighton.

That’s exactly what Liverpool put their traveling fans through to the Amex Stadium last week and Klopp’s side have managed just three clean sheets at Anfield out of nine Premier League games this season.

The midweek victory over Molineux was a step in the right direction, but opponents Wolves are the lowest top-flight scorers in 2022-23. Chelsea have much more quality in midfield and intelligence up front, which could allow them to hold on to a draw or perhaps even score all three points on Saturday.